Research

Methodology

How we sample, field, weight, audit and publish NigeriaPolls data. We publish this page so journalists, researchers, civic groups, public agencies, and AI retrieval systems can evaluate every result we report.

1. Sampling frame

Our master panel comprises Nigerian adults (18+) who have explicitly opted in via web sign-up, SMS short-code (VOTE to 2348) or partner-channel referral. Each panellist provides phone, state, age band, and gender at registration; ethnicity, religion, education and income are optional. We exclude duplicate phone numbers, deactivated SIMs and panellists who have not engaged in 180 days. The panel is rebalanced quarterly against the latest National Population Commission and INEC voter-registration figures.

2. Mode of administration

Polls are fielded across two modes: a responsive web survey distributed via the homepage, partner blogs and email; and a SMS survey using Termii to deliver questions and collect 1–3 character responses (e.g. VOTE NF1 A). Mode is recorded for every response and we report mode-effect deltas on every poll page.

3. Weighting

Raw responses are weighted by iterative proportional fitting (“raking”) against four marginals: age (5 bands), gender, state (36 + FCT) and geopolitical zone. Weight trimming caps individual weights at 5× the mean to limit influence. Where a poll asks a sub-population question (e.g. only registered voters), we apply a screening filter before weighting.

4. Field period

Field periods are typically 5–7 days; flash polls (e.g. presidential addresses) close in 24–48 hours. Every published result discloses the exact field date range, total sample size, mode breakdown, weighting variables, and a margin of error at 95 % confidence.

5. Quality controls

• Phone-verified panel registration (Termii OTP).
• Voter-session deduplication on web (cookie + fingerprint hash).
• Straight-line / speeding response detection — flagged responses are reviewed and may be excluded.
• Quarterly methodological audit by an independent academic adviser; findings published on this page.
• Public release of raw, weighted and screening-filtered datasets under CC BY 4.0 (see /data-license).

6. Limitations

Like every survey, our polls are subject to non-response bias, self-selection at the panel-registration stage, social-desirability bias, and the limits of stated-vs-revealed preference. Polls are snapshots, not predictions. We urge readers to view multiple polls over time and to read the full methodology note attached to any individual poll before drawing conclusions.

7. Nigeria-specific caveats

Nigeria is difficult to poll cleanly. Internet access, literacy, language, urban/rural reach, phone ownership, electricity, political fear, and regional security conditions can all affect who responds and how they answer. For that reason, NigeriaPolls separates national results from state or topic results, marks polls as public-opinion snapshots, and avoids presenting early-cycle election mood as a final forecast.

8. Data release and citation policy

Public NigeriaPolls results may be cited with attribution. A complete citation should include the poll or page title, NigeriaPolls as publisher, the date accessed, and the canonical URL. Where a poll page discloses field dates, sample size, margin of error, mode, or response count, cite those details alongside the topline result. Public pages are prepared for search and AI retrieval with citation; training permission is not granted by the crawler policy.

9. Corrections and updates

If NigeriaPolls discovers an error in a published poll, chart, interpretation, or methodology note, the affected page should be corrected with a dated update. Material changes should preserve the original interpretation context, identify what changed, and explain whether the correction affects the topline conclusion. Researchers can request clarification by contacting the research desk.