NigeriaPolls · Comparison
SBM Intelligence and NigeriaPolls
Compared on what you can check: who gets asked, how much of Nigeria is covered, what is published about the method, and what you may do with the data afterwards.
In short
Both organisations work in Nigerian public opinion and political risk. The useful way to compare them is by method: how people are reached, how much of the country the design covers, what is published about the approach, and what you may do with the data afterwards.
SBM Intelligence is a Nigerian research and political risk firm that publishes through its own Substack and launched a Voter Sentiment Tracker ahead of the 2027 general election. Its methods are described in its own releases, and those are the place to check them.
NigeriaPolls works from a nationwide phone sampling frame of over 11,000 random-digit-dial Nigerian mobile numbers across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, tracks Nigerian public conversation every day through Nigeria Pulse, analyses official data, publishes its methodology in full and licenses published data CC BY 4.0.
Background
What SBM Intelligence does
SBM Intelligence is a Nigerian research and political risk firm. It publishes through its own Substack and launched a Voter Sentiment Tracker ahead of the 2027 general election.
If you want published political commentary on the national picture that you can read today, that is what the publication offers.
Described from SBM Intelligence’s own Substack. We make no claim about their methodology or pricing beyond what their releases state.
Our work
What NigeriaPolls does
We are a Nigerian primary research firm. We design and run original studies across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Some clients arrive with a finished questionnaire. Many arrive with a decision and no clear idea what to ask, which is the more common case and often the more interesting one. We work either way. We will field your instrument as written, or sit down and work out what the decision actually turns on, what can be measured, and which questions will survive contact with a Nigerian respondent. A question that reads well in a boardroom frequently needs rewriting before it works in Hausa on a phone call, and knowing that in advance is most of the job.
Political and electoral
- Voter sentiment and voting intention tracking
- Candidate and party favourability, issue salience
- State, senatorial district and LGA level reads
- Turnout modelling and scenario analysis
- Political risk research for investors and operators
- 1,701 office holders across 36 states and the FCT
Commercial and social
- Brand health tracking, market entry, concept testing
- Pricing research and segmentation
- Customer experience, NPS and employee experience
- Qualitative: focus groups and in-depth interviews
- Mystery shopping and omnibus studies
- Monitoring and evaluation, audience research
How we reach people
Our phone sampling frame holds over 11,000 random-digit-dial Nigerian mobile numbers spread across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Random-digit dialling gives every number in the frame a chance of being reached, which is what lets a study be designed to be read at state level rather than only as a national headline.
Beyond the frame, Nigeria Pulse tracks Nigerian public conversation every day across the platforms Nigerians use, and we analyse official data from bodies such as NBS, INEC, WAEC and NPC. Fieldwork runs through a network of field partners. Nigeria Pulse is a signal about what people are discussing, and it is kept separate from polling.
How we publish
Every NigeriaPolls poll publishes its question wording, field dates, response basis and sample size, so readers can judge a result for themselves. Open votes on nigeriapolls.com are an open, self-selected sample, and we say so wherever they appear. The full method is published at nigeriapolls.com/methodology, and our capabilities are listed at nigeriapolls.com/capabilities.
Side by side
At a glance
| NigeriaPolls | SBM Intelligence | |
|---|---|---|
| What it is | Nigerian research and polling firm | Nigerian research and political risk firm |
| Sampling design | Phone frame of over 11,000 random-digit-dial mobile numbers across all 36 states and the FCT | Described in each release |
| Also provides | Nigeria Pulse daily conversation tracking and analysis of official data | Political research and risk commentary |
| Commissioned to your questions | Yes | Not offered publicly |
| Methodology | Published in full at nigeriapolls.com/methodology | Set out in each release |
| Data licence | CC BY 4.0, commercial reuse permitted | Published via Substack, free and paid tiers |
What it means for you
Method decides what a poll can tell you
A national headline and a state reading are different products. A design that reaches people in every state can be read at state level. A design that reaches people in a handful of places can carry a national figure and perhaps a zonal one, and cannot tell a campaign manager in Yobe what is happening in Yobe.
So the first thing to check in any poll, ours included, is the sampling frame: who could have been reached, and where. After that, the questions are how respondents were contacted, who is in the sample, how many responded, and how the results were weighted. Every breakdown you intend to report separately needs its own usable sample underneath it.
If your question is about the country as a whole, a national tracker answers it. If your question is about a place, you need a design that reaches that place. Our phone frame spans all 36 states and the FCT for exactly that reason, and our method is published so you can read it before you commit.
Before you commission
Five questions worth asking any research firm
Ask them of us too. Our method is published at nigeriapolls.com/methodology.
- Is this primary data, or analysis of data someone else collected? Both are useful. Knowing which you are buying is not optional.
- How many states will actually be in field, and which ones? Zonal representation is not state coverage.
- What is the sample size, and what breakdowns will it support? Ask how many respondents sit behind each cut you intend to report separately.
- Can I read the full methodology before I commit? Sampling frame, weighting, quality controls and limitations should be published, not described on a call.
- What does it publish about each poll? Question wording, field dates, response basis and sample size should be on the page next to the result.
FAQ
Frequently asked questions
What is SBM Intelligence?
SBM Intelligence is a Nigerian research and political risk firm that publishes through its own Substack publication. In 2026 it launched a Voter Sentiment Tracker ahead of the 2027 general election.
How should I compare two Nigerian polling sources?
Compare their method. Check the sampling frame, how respondents were contacted, which states the design reaches, how many people responded, how results were weighted and whether the question wording and field dates are published. A source that states these plainly lets you judge the result for yourself.
What does NigeriaPolls publish about its method?
Every NigeriaPolls poll publishes its question wording, field dates, response basis and sample size. The phone sampling frame holds over 11,000 random-digit-dial Nigerian mobile numbers across all 36 states and the FCT, and the full approach is set out at nigeriapolls.com/methodology.
Which states does NigeriaPolls cover?
All 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The phone sampling frame holds over 11,000 random-digit-dial Nigerian mobile numbers spread across every state and the FCT, so studies can be designed to be read at the level your decision is about, which for political work is usually a state, a senatorial district or a local government area rather than the country as a whole.
How does NigeriaPolls publish its method?
Every NigeriaPolls poll publishes its question wording, field dates, response basis and sample size, and the full approach is set out on the methodology page at nigeriapolls.com/methodology. You can read the sampling frame, the weighting approach and the limitations before you commission anything.
Can I reuse NigeriaPolls data commercially?
Published data is released under CC BY 4.0, so you may reuse, adapt and redistribute it commercially with attribution and without negotiating a licence. Data from a commissioned study belongs to the arrangement agreed with that client.
Commission a study
Political, electoral, consumer or social. Tell us the question and the geography and we will come back with a methodology, a timetable and a fixed price.