Poll of Polls

A Poll of Polls aggregator combines results from multiple independent polling firms to produce a single, more reliable estimate of public opinion. Rather than relying on any one poll — which may have sampling bias, timing effects, or methodological quirks — an aggregator averages across pollsters, weighting each result by its sample size, recency, and historical accuracy. The NigeriaPolls aggregator currently tracks four major polling organisations: NigeriaPolls, NOI Polls, SBM Intelligence, and Afrobarometer, covering a combined sample of over 7,800 respondents in the most recent aggregation cycle. This approach smooths out random noise and provides a clearer picture of the underlying electoral landscape for Nigeria's 2027 presidential election.

Our aggregation model applies three weighting factors to each poll. First, sample-size weighting: polls with larger sample sizes receive proportionally more weight because they have smaller margins of error. Second, recency weighting: more recent polls are weighted more heavily than older ones, since voter preferences shift over time due to campaigns, events, and policy announcements. Third, historical accuracy weighting: pollsters with a track record of accurately predicting past Nigerian elections receive a modest upward adjustment. The combined weighted average is then recalculated monthly and published on this page. Our full methodology is available on the Methodology page.

The 2027 presidential election is shaping up as a contest among four major contenders, all of whom have declared or are widely expected to run. Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the incumbent President and candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), is seeking re-election. Atiku Abubakar, former Vice President and candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is running for a sixth time. Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate who finished third in 2023 with over 6 million votes, is mounting a second campaign. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, former Governor of Kano State and candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), retains strong support in the North-West. A fifth column tracks undecided voters, which has consistently ranged between 8% and 11% across recent polls.

The combined margin of error for the NigeriaPolls aggregation is approximately ±1.4% at the 95% confidence level. This is calculated by combining the individual margins of error of each poll in inverse proportion to their sample sizes. Because we are averaging four polls with a total sample of 7,800 respondents, the aggregated estimate is substantially more precise than any single poll. For context, the individual poll margins range from ±2.0% (NigeriaPolls, n=2,400) to ±2.5% (SBM Intelligence, n=1,500). It is important to note that the margin of error applies only to random sampling error and does not account for non-response bias, question wording effects, or late voter shifts.

The NigeriaPolls aggregator is updated on the first Monday of every month, or within 48 hours of a major new poll release — whichever comes first. We monitor all four tracked pollsters continuously and also scan for releases from additional reputable firms. During peak campaign periods (expected from Q4 2026 through February 2027), we may shift to bi-weekly updates. Historical trend data is preserved in our archive, allowing users to track how each candidate's support has evolved over time. Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to receive update alerts directly.

No. The Poll of Polls is an aggregation of public opinion at a point in time, not a prediction of future behaviour. Polls measure current voter intentions, which can and do change dramatically during campaigns. Factors that polls cannot fully capture include voter turnout differentials, last-minute undecided voter swings, electoral logistics, and unforeseen events. Historically, Nigerian polls have correlated with election outcomes but with significant variance — the 2023 election saw polling averages understate Peter Obi's support in several states. We strongly recommend treating these figures as a snapshot of the race, not a forecast. For comprehensive election analysis, visit our 2027 Election Hub.