NigeriaPolls · Interactive Tool
Poll Accuracy Calculator
Score any pre-election poll for the 2023 presidential race against the official INEC result. See the mean absolute error, whether the winner was called and the largest miss.
Score a poll against the 2023 result
Enter the percentage a poll gave each candidate before the February 2023 election. If the poll reported undecided voters, enter that share too and the calculator removes it before scoring.
Enter a percentage for each of the four candidates to see the scorecard.
Official Results
2023 Presidential Election Results
The results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in March 2023. These figures are the benchmark the calculator scores every poll against.
Bola Tinubu
36.6%
8,794,726 votes
Atiku Abubakar
29.1%
6,984,520 votes
Peter Obi
25.4%
6,101,533 votes
Rabiu Kwankwaso
6.2%
1,496,687 votes
Source: Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), final presidential election results, March 2023. View official INEC results →
Method
How Poll Accuracy Is Scored
Mean absolute error
For each candidate, take the gap between the poll and the result, ignore the sign, then average the four gaps. It gives one number that is easy to compare across polls.
Winner called
A poll can be close on every share and still name the wrong leader when the top two are near each other. The scorecard checks the winner separately.
Largest miss
The biggest single gap shows where a poll struggled, for example a candidate whose support was concentrated in regions the sample reached poorly.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is poll accuracy measured?
The standard measure is Mean Absolute Error (MAE): the average gap, in percentage points, between each candidate’s predicted share and the share they actually won. A lower MAE means a more accurate poll. The calculator also reports whether the poll called the winner and which single candidate it missed by the most.
What were the official 2023 presidential results?
INEC declared Bola Tinubu (APC) the winner with 8,794,726 votes, ahead of Atiku Abubakar (PDP) with 6,984,520, Peter Obi (LP) with 6,101,533 and Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) with 1,496,687. Those results are the benchmark the calculator uses.
Why do some polls miss the result?
Common causes are turnout that differs from the sample, late switching by undecided voters, sampling bias between urban and rural areas, respondents who hide their true preference, and the difficulty of reaching every language group and region. A poll that is accurate on shares can still be wrong about turnout.
How should undecided voters be handled?
Compare like with like. The official result has no undecided column, so the calculator removes the undecided share you enter and rescales the candidates to 100% before scoring. Polls that publish only decided-voter shares can leave that field blank.
What counts as a good MAE?
Under 1.5 points is excellent, 1.5 to 2.5 is very good, 2.5 to 3.5 is acceptable with notable misses, and above 3.5 is a significant deviation. These bands are a guide, since a small MAE can still hide a missed winner.
Related Resources
2023 Election Results
State-by-state breakdown of the 2023 presidential outcome.
Elections2027 Election Hub
Dates, rules and official INEC information for the 2027 cycle.
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GuidesPolling Guides
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MethodologyHow NigeriaPolls Works
Our sampling frame, question standards and what we publish with every poll.
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