Cost of Living Sentiment Index

The July 2026 Cost of Living Sentiment reading of 28.4 confirms what millions of Nigerian households already experience daily: an affordability crisis that has deepened rather than abated over the past twelve months. This report synthesizes findings from 2,419 respondents surveyed between June 22 and June 29, 2026, using our standard mixed-mode methodology of Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) and online panels weighted to national demographics.

The most striking finding this month is the collapse of fuel and energy sentiment to 22.8 — the lowest sub-index on record. Since the complete removal of petrol subsidies in mid-2025, pump prices have more than tripled in nominal terms, with cascading effects on every sector measured. Transport operators have passed costs directly to commuters; diesel-dependent manufacturers have raised prices for consumer goods; and households running generators face electricity-equivalent costs that rival rent in some urban areas. The government's Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) conversion programme, while conceptually sound, has reached fewer than 3% of commercial vehicle operators according to our supplementary logistics survey, leaving the vast majority of Nigerians fully exposed to petrol price volatility.

Food affordability sentiment at 24.1 reflects a similarly structural crisis. Nigeria's food inflation, while moderating slightly from its 2025 peak, remains above 35% annually — far outpacing wage growth in both formal and informal sectors. The reopening of land borders has not produced the price relief many expected, partly because regional neighbours face their own currency pressures and partly because domestic distribution infrastructure remains inadequate. Our respondents in Kano, Kaduna, and Sokoto report that a 50kg bag of rice now consumes between 65% and 80% of a monthly minimum wage, depending on brand and source. In the South-West, where wages are nominally higher, the proportion is only marginally better at 55% to 70%.

Housing sentiment at 35.2, while the highest of the six sectors, still registers as "Poor" and masks extreme geographic concentration. Lagos and Abuja account for the majority of elevated scores, not because housing is affordable there — it emphatically is not — but because respondents in those cities have somewhat higher incomes that slightly cushion the blow. In contrast, respondents in secondary cities like Ilorin, Enugu, and Calabar report rent-to-income ratios exceeding 45%, a threshold widely associated with housing-induced financial stress. The near-total absence of functional mortgage markets for middle-income earners means that most Nigerians rent informally, with no protection against arbitrary increases.

Healthcare and education sentiment both sit in the low 30s, revealing how Nigerians are being forced to deprioritize essential investments. Over 40% of respondents report delaying or skipping medical treatment in the past three months due to cost, with women and children disproportionately affected. School fee increases, particularly in private institutions that absorb students fleeing underfunded public schools, have pushed 18% of respondents to consider withdrawing a child from school — a figure that rises to 31% in the North-East and North-West. The long-term human capital implications of these trade-offs are profound.

Regionally, the North's composite score of 25.1 reflects the compounding effects of food price inflation, conflict-related market disruptions, and lower baseline wages. The South-West's relative outperformance at 31.2 is cold comfort — it remains deeply negative in absolute terms and primarily reflects Lagos's economic gravity rather than genuine affordability. The policy implications are urgent: without targeted cash transfers, accelerated CNG rollout, strategic reserve releases, and urgent investment in domestic food production and storage, the Cost of Living Sentiment Index is unlikely to recover above 35 before 2027.