Social Cohesion Index

The Social Cohesion Index is a composite measurement developed by NigeriaPolls to quantify the strength of social bonds across Nigeria's ethnically and religiously diverse population. It combines six dimensions — inter-ethnic trust, inter-religious trust, national identity pride, sense of belonging, generalised trust in fellow citizens, and perception of fairness — into a single 0–100 score. Scores below 40 indicate significant social fragmentation risk; scores between 40 and 60 suggest fragile cohesion that can be strengthened or eroded by events; scores above 70 indicate robust social integration.

NigeriaPolls surveys at least 3,000 respondents quarterly using stratified random sampling across all 36 states and the FCT. Each respondent answers a validated battery of 18 questions drawn from the OECD Guidelines on Measuring Trust and adapted for Nigerian context. Responses are scored 0–100, normalised, and weighted equally across the six dimensions. Religious and ethnic quotas ensure proportional representation. Full methodological details are available on our methodology page.

Inter-religious trust scores 38.5 compared to inter-ethnic trust at 42.1, reflecting the salience of religious identity in contemporary Nigerian politics and the persistence of faith-based violence in parts of the Middle Belt and North-East. Our qualitative follow-ups reveal that respondents in mixed-religion communities often cite different religious holidays, dietary norms, and political party preferences as sources of social distance. However, the gap is narrower among younger respondents (18–30), suggesting generational convergence that may close this divide over time.

The North-Central region records the highest Social Cohesion Index at 49.2, driven by above-average scores in sense of belonging (51.3) and national identity pride (54.1). The region's diversity — home to over 200 ethnic groups in Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi, Niger, and Kwara states — appears to foster a pluralistic civic identity that transcends single-ethnic allegiance. The FCT's federal presence and mixed-population character also contribute. By contrast, the North-East scores lowest at 39.1, heavily weighed down by the lingering effects of insurgency-induced displacement and disrupted community structures.

Christian respondents score 48.2 on the composite index, Muslim respondents 45.1, and those identifying as Traditional/Other 47.8. The Christian-Muslim gap is most pronounced on inter-religious trust (44.7 vs. 36.2) and perception of fairness (46.1 vs. 41.3), while national identity pride is remarkably similar across groups (52.1 vs. 51.8). Notably, Muslim respondents in the South-West score significantly higher (49.6) than the national Muslim average, suggesting that regional context moderates religious identity effects on cohesion.

Our survey respondents identify three priority areas: (1) Fairer distribution of federal appointments and infrastructure projects, which would directly address the perception-of-fairness deficit. (2) Strengthening national youth service and inter-faith dialogue programmes that bring diverse groups into sustained contact. (3) Truth and reconciliation processes for communities affected by ethnic or religious violence, which our data shows correlate with persistent trust deficits years after incidents. Education reform that emphasises shared citizenship over ethnic history also receives strong support, particularly from younger respondents.