Security Perception Index

The Security Perception Index is a composite metric developed by NigeriaPolls to measure how safe Nigerians feel in their daily lives. It captures subjective security—the personal sense of safety—rather than objective crime statistics alone. The index is scored on a 0–100 scale, where higher values indicate greater perceived safety. It draws from a nationally representative sample and is updated monthly. The index encompasses assessments of personal safety, property security, confidence in law enforcement, and perceptions of trend direction. We distinguish between objective security (measured by crime rates and incident data) and subjective security (measured by feelings and expectations) because the two can diverge significantly. A community with low crime but high fear may underinvest in economic activity, while a community with moderate crime but strong social cohesion may thrive. The Security Perception Index captures this subjective dimension, which is often the more powerful driver of behaviour.

The index is constructed from five sub-dimensions, each weighted equally at 20%: Personal Safety (feelings of safety at home, work, and in public spaces), Property Security (confidence that homes and businesses are protected from theft or damage), Law Enforcement Trust (belief that police and security agencies respond effectively to incidents), Trend Perception (whether respondents feel security is improving, stable, or deteriorating), and Geographic Confidence (comfort travelling within and outside one's state). Each dimension is measured by 3–5 validated survey items on a five-point Likert scale, normalized to a 0–100 scale, and combined into the headline score. The Personal Safety dimension includes questions about fear of walking alone at night, comfort letting children play outside, and anxiety about harassment or assault. Property Security covers home burglary risk, business protection, and vehicle safety. Law Enforcement Trust assesses response time expectations, fairness of treatment, and corruption perceptions. Trend Perception captures directional judgments: whether respondents believe security is getting better, worse, or staying the same. Geographic Confidence measures willingness to travel to other states and comfort living in current location.

The FCT leads the Security Perception Index with a score of 52.1, benefiting from heightened federal security presence, gated communities, and relatively rapid emergency response times. Lagos follows at 48.3, where private security infrastructure and neighbourhood vigilance compensate for high population density. Ogun (46.5), Ekiti (45.2), and Osun (44.8) round out the top five, reflecting the relative calm of South-Western states. It is important to note that 'safest' here refers to perceived safety; objective crime rates may differ. Lagos, for instance, has higher absolute crime volumes than most states due to its population size, but its residents feel relatively secure because policing is more visible and emergency services more accessible. The FCT's score has improved significantly (+2.3) following enhanced intelligence operations and the deployment of the Special Intervention Squad. Ogun benefits from its proximity to Lagos—many residents commute and expect similar security standards—while Ekiti and Osun profit from lower population density and stronger traditional governance structures that mediate local disputes before they escalate.

Borno ranks lowest at 12.4, still heavily affected by Boko Haram insurgency and its legacy of displacement and trauma. Zamfara (15.1) and Yobe (16.8) follow, with Zamfara particularly afflicted by banditry and cattle rustling that has made rural life precarious. Kaduna (18.2) and Niger (19.5) complete the bottom five. Kaduna's low score reflects both ethno-religious tensions in the southern half and banditry in the north, while Niger has seen an expansion of bandit activities from neighbouring Zamfara. Borno's score, while catastrophically low, actually represents an improvement from the 2016–2018 period when the index first began tracking, suggesting that some normalization has occurred despite continued violence. Zamfara's -2.3 monthly change is the largest decline recorded in the current cycle, driven by a surge in mass kidnappings from schools and rural markets. Yobe's score is pulled down by spillover attacks from Borno and the slow pace of reconstruction in communities devastated during the peak insurgency years.

The Security Perception Index shows a strong inverse correlation with reported incident rates. States with high banditry, insurgency, or kidnapping consistently score below 30. However, perception also diverges from objective data in important ways. Lagos, for example, has significant absolute crime volumes due to its population size, yet its perception score (48.3) is high because incidents are concentrated in specific areas and emergency response is relatively effective. Conversely, some states with lower absolute crime rates score poorly because incidents are highly visible or occur in areas where no help is expected. The index thus captures both reality and the psychology of safety. A fascinating finding from our research is the 'media effect': states with high national media coverage of insecurity score lower than statistically similar states that receive less coverage. Borno's score is amplified by its status as a symbol of national security failure, while Kogi— which faces serious criminal threats—scores marginally better partly because it receives less sustained media attention. This means that perception is not just a function of lived experience but also of narrative and information environment.

The national Security Perception Index has risen from 29.8 to 31.2 over the past twelve months, suggesting a modest but meaningful improvement in how safe Nigerians feel. This uptick correlates with increased military operations in the North-West, the establishment of community vigilante networks in several states, and a slight reduction in high-profile kidnapping incidents in early 2026. However, the index remains in the 'low confidence' zone (below 40), and the improvement is fragile. Any resurgence of major attacks could quickly reverse the trend. Sustained investment in policing, intelligence, and conflict prevention is needed to consolidate these gains. The improvement is not evenly distributed: the FCT, Lagos, and Ogun have driven most of the national gain, while Zamfara, Kaduna, and Niger have continued to deteriorate. This divergence means that the average Nigerian feels slightly safer, but millions in the North-West and North-Central feel more threatened than ever. The seven-month streak of improvement (December 2025 to July 2026) is the longest positive run since 2022, but it started from a very low base. For the trend to be meaningful, the index needs to sustain levels above 35 for at least six consecutive months.