NigeriaPolls
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Index methodology

Security Perception Index

How safe Nigerians feel at home, on the road and in their community.

What the Security Perception Index measures

The Security Perception Index measures how safe Nigerians feel, and how that feeling lines up with recorded incidents. It separates perceived safety from reported violence so planners and reporters can see where fear and events diverge.

The index runs on a 0 to 100 scale with 50 as the neutral point. Higher means a more positive reading.

Components

Personal safety

Feeling safe walking in the neighbourhood and at home.

Travel safety

Feeling safe on inter-city and local roads.

Community safety

Confidence in neighbourhood and community protection.

Confidence in security agencies

Whether people believe they would be protected.

Expectation of change

Whether safety is expected to improve or worsen.

Three inputs, reported side by side

1. Nigeria Pulse conversation signal

Nigeria Pulse tracks daily conversation about attacks, kidnapping, banditry and policing across Nigerian platforms, grouped by state and zone. It shows where security talk is intensifying.

Explore Nigeria Pulse

2. Official data from named institutions

  • National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Crime experience and security perception survey results.
  • Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED): Recorded conflict and violence events by state and date.
  • National Population Commission (NPC): Population denominators for per-capita comparison.

Every official figure is shown with its institution and release year.

3. Field data from the phone sampling frame

Fieldwork runs on the NigeriaPolls nationwide random-digit-dial phone sampling frame of more than 11,000 Nigerian mobile numbers across all 36 states and the FCT. Interviews are designed so results can be reported by geopolitical zone and state.

How the index is scaled and published

  1. 1

    Rescale. Every input is converted to a 0 to 100 score against fixed floor and ceiling values that are published before the first release and not changed afterwards.

  2. 2

    Combine. Components are combined with equal weights unless a release states otherwise. The weights and bounds are listed on the methodology page.

  3. 3

    Publish. Each release states the field dates, question wording, response basis and sample size, and shows the field, official and conversation views side by side.

  4. 4

    Revise. Any change to wording, bounds or weights is logged with a version note, so a series is never quietly rewritten.

How to cite

Cite each release with the index name, the release month and year, and the page address. Quote the sample size and field dates exactly as printed on the release.

NigeriaPolls, Security Perception Index, release month and year. https://nigeriapolls.com/indices/security-perception-index

Frequently asked questions

What does the Security Perception Index measure?

It measures how safe Nigerians feel in five areas of everyday life, on a 0 to 100 scale where higher means safer.

Does it count incidents?

No. It measures perception. Recorded incident data from named sources is shown beside it so readers can compare feeling with events.

How do I cite the index?

Cite each release as: NigeriaPolls, Security Perception Index, release month and year, https://nigeriapolls.com/indices/security-perception-index.