NigeriaPolls · Governance Indicator
Governance Trust Index
Track public trust in Nigerian federal and state government institutions. Monthly composite scores, approval ratings, and state-by-state breakdowns for analysts, journalists, and citizens.
Current Score
Previous Score
36.2
June 2026
Last Updated
July 2026
Fieldwork: 1–14 Jul
CSV · 14 KB
The NigeriaPolls Governance Trust Index (GTI) is the country's most rigorous monthly measure of public confidence in government institutions. Drawing on face-to-face interviews with over 4,000 adults across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, the GTI tracks citizen assessments of federal and state government performance, trust in public services, perceptions of corruption, and satisfaction with government responsiveness. In July 2026, the index rose to 38.7, up from 36.2 in June — a modest but notable improvement driven largely by rising approval of state-level governance.
Governance trust is a critical bellwether for democratic stability. When citizens trust their government, they are more likely to pay taxes, comply with regulations, participate in civic life, and accept election outcomes. When trust erodes, social cohesion frays, compliance drops, and political polarization rises. The GTI provides policymakers, civil society organizations, and international observers with an early warning system for governance crises — and a benchmark for measuring reform progress over time. For journalists, the index offers a data-driven counterweight to anecdotal reporting on public sentiment.
The July 2026 improvement was not uniform. While state governments saw their average approval rating climb to 41.5 — the highest since March 2026 — federal government approval slipped slightly to 34.2. This divergence highlights a persistent pattern in NigeriaPolls data: citizens consistently rate sub-national governments more highly than the federal administration, likely because state governments are perceived as more accessible, more responsive to local needs, and more directly accountable. The South-South and South-West zones continue to lead in governance trust, while the North-East and North-West remain the most sceptical regions.
Comparison
Federal vs State Government Trust
Nigerian citizens consistently express higher trust in state governments than in federal institutions. The gap has widened over the past year, with state approval now 7.3 points above federal approval.
34.2
Approval rating for the federal government's overall performance, covering economic management, security, foreign policy, and infrastructure.
41.5
Average approval rating across all 36 state governments and the FCT, weighted by population.
Key Differences in Public Assessment
Accessibility
Citizens report difficulty reaching federal officials
Governors and commissioners perceived as more accessible
Service Delivery
Federal services (passports, permits) seen as slow
State services (health, education) rated more responsive
Corruption Perception
Federal contracts and appointments viewed as opaque
Local budget processes seen as somewhat more transparent
Approval Tracker
12-Month Presidential Approval Timeline
Federal government approval has fluctuated between 31.5 and 36.5 over the past year, with a notable dip in February–March 2026 following fuel price adjustments, and a partial recovery in May–June.
State Rankings
Governance Trust by State
Rankings of all 36 states and the FCT by governance trust score. Scores reflect citizen assessments of state government performance, service delivery, and responsiveness. Data updated monthly.
| Rank | State | Score | Trend | Population |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lagos | 52.3 | Up | 15.9M |
| 2 | Rivers | 49.8 | Up | 7.3M |
| 3 | Ogun | 48.1 | Up | 6.0M |
| 4 | Delta | 46.5 | Flat | 5.8M |
| 5 | FCT | 45.9 | Up | 3.8M |
| 6 | Akwa Ibom | 45.2 | Up | 5.5M |
| 7 | Cross River | 44.6 | Up | 4.0M |
| 8 | Oyo | 43.8 | Down | 7.8M |
| 9 | Edo | 43.1 | Flat | 4.5M |
| 10 | Anambra | 42.7 | Up | 5.5M |
| 11 | Enugu | 42.3 | Up | 4.7M |
| 12 | Kwara | 41.8 | Up | 3.2M |
| 13 | Ekiti | 41.5 | Flat | 3.3M |
| 14 | Ondo | 41.1 | Down | 4.7M |
| 15 | Osun | 40.6 | Down | 4.7M |
| 16 | Abia | 40.2 | Flat | 3.7M |
| 17 | Imo | 39.8 | Down | 5.4M |
| 18 | Benue | 39.4 | Up | 5.7M |
| 19 | Plateau | 39.1 | Up | 4.4M |
| 20 | Niger | 38.7 | Flat | 6.0M |
| 21 | Taraba | 38.2 | Up | 3.0M |
| 22 | Kogi | 37.8 | Down | 4.5M |
| 23 | Adamawa | 37.3 | Flat | 4.5M |
| 24 | Nasarawa | 36.9 | Up | 2.6M |
| 25 | Bayelsa | 36.4 | Down | 2.3M |
| 26 | Ebonyi | 35.8 | Up | 3.0M |
| 27 | Gombe | 35.2 | Flat | 3.6M |
| 28 | Kaduna | 34.6 | Down | 8.3M |
| 29 | Bauchi | 33.9 | Down | 7.5M |
| 30 | Katsina | 33.1 | Down | 9.0M |
| 31 | Kano | 32.4 | Down | 15.5M |
| 32 | Jigawa | 31.8 | Flat | 6.4M |
| 33 | Kebbi | 31.2 | Down | 4.4M |
| 34 | Sokoto | 30.5 | Down | 5.3M |
| 35 | Zamfara | 29.3 | Down | 5.1M |
| 36 | Yobe | 28.7 | Down | 3.4M |
| 37 | Borno | 27.4 | Down | 5.9M |
Feeding Polls
Latest Polls Feeding This Index
The Governance Trust Index synthesizes data from multiple NigeriaPolls surveys. Here are the three most recent polls contributing to the July 2026 score.
Nigeria Governance Tracker — July 2026
Comprehensive assessment of federal and state government approval, public service trust, and corruption perception. The GTI rose to 38.7, driven by improved state-level performance ratings.
View pollFederal Government Performance Audit
Focused evaluation of federal government performance across security, economy, infrastructure, and healthcare. Federal approval remains subdued at 34.2, with the South-East zone registering the lowest scores.
View pollState Government Accountability Survey
Citizen assessment of state government responsiveness, budget transparency, and service delivery. State governments outperform the federal level in all six geopolitical zones.
View pollMethodology
How the GTI Is Calculated
The NigeriaPolls Governance Trust Index is constructed from a monthly nationally representative survey of approximately 4,200 adults aged 18 and above. Respondents are selected through multi-stage stratified random sampling, with stratification by state, urban-rural classification, gender, and age cohort. The sample is weighted post-fieldwork to match the most recent population projections from the National Population Commission, ensuring that estimates are representative at both national and zonal levels.
The GTI comprises four sub-indices, each derived from a battery of validated survey questions. The Federal Government Approval sub-index captures overall assessment of the president and federal cabinet performance across economic management, security, infrastructure, and foreign policy. The State Government Approval sub-index asks respondents to rate their own state governor and commissioners on similar dimensions. The Public Services Trust sub-index measures confidence in specific institutions — the police, judiciary, civil service, and electoral bodies. The Anti-Corruption Perception sub-index tracks citizen beliefs about whether government is making genuine efforts to reduce corruption.
Each sub-index is calculated as a net score (positive responses minus negative responses) and normalized to a 0–100 scale. The four sub-indices are then averaged with equal weights to produce the headline GTI. Quality assurance includes GPS verification of interviewer locations, audio back-checks on 10 percent of interviews, and telephone verification for 5 percent of respondents. The national margin of error is ±1.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. State-level estimates carry larger margins (±4 to ±6 points) and should be used for directional comparison rather than precise ranking.
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Governance Trust Index?
The NigeriaPolls Governance Trust Index (GTI) is a composite indicator that measures how much trust Nigerian citizens place in their federal and state government institutions. It captures approval of government performance, confidence in public services, perceptions of corruption, and satisfaction with government responsiveness. Scores range from 0 to 100, where higher scores indicate greater trust.
How is the Governance Trust Index calculated?
The GTI is calculated from four sub-indices: federal government approval, state government approval, trust in public services, and perceived anti-corruption effort. Each sub-index is derived from a nationally representative survey of approximately 4,200 adults, weighted by state, gender, age, and urban-rural distribution. Responses are normalized to a 0–100 scale and averaged with equal weights.
How often is the Governance Trust Index updated?
The NigeriaPolls Governance Trust Index is updated monthly. Fieldwork runs during the first two weeks of each month, with publication by the third week. The index has been published continuously since July 2025. Newsletter subscribers receive each monthly report on the day of publication.
Can I use this data for research or journalism?
Yes. NigeriaPolls governance data is available for academic research, journalism, and non-commercial use under our standard data license. We ask that you cite NigeriaPolls as the source in all publications. For commercial use, redistribution, or integration into paid products, please review our data licensing terms or contact our research team.
What does a score of 38.7 mean?
A score of 38.7 indicates that public trust in Nigerian government institutions is relatively low. On the NigeriaPolls GTI scale, scores below 50 suggest that distrustful or dissatisfied respondents outnumber those who express confidence. A reading of 38.7 reflects ongoing public concern about government performance, corruption, and service delivery, even as the upward trend from 36.2 suggests modest improvement. It is important to interpret the score alongside the trend direction and sub-index breakdowns.
How does my state compare to the federal government?
State governments in Nigeria consistently outperform the federal government on trust metrics. In July 2026, the average state approval score was 41.5 compared to 34.2 for the federal government. This pattern has held across nearly all NigeriaPolls surveys, suggesting that citizens view state-level governance as more accessible, responsive, and accountable than federal administration. Use the state breakdown table on this page to see how your specific state compares to both the federal score and the state average. You can also explore state-specific reports on our polls page.
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