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Index methodology

Governance Trust Index

How far Nigerians trust the institutions that run the country.

What the Governance Trust Index measures

The Governance Trust Index measures public trust in federal and state government, the electoral commission, courts, the police and the legislature. It is built for analysts, civil society groups and journalists who need one comparable reading of institutional trust.

The index runs on a 0 to 100 scale with 50 as the neutral point. Higher means a more positive reading.

Components

Trust in the federal government

Confidence in national leadership and delivery.

Trust in state government

Confidence in the respondent’s own state administration.

Trust in the electoral commission

Confidence that elections are run fairly.

Trust in the courts

Confidence in impartial judgment.

Trust in the police

Confidence in the force’s conduct and protection.

Trust in the National Assembly

Confidence in lawmakers.

Three inputs, reported side by side

1. Nigeria Pulse conversation signal

Nigeria Pulse tracks daily conversation about government performance, elections, policing and the courts. Topic and tone are logged by state so the conversation signal can be set beside the field component.

Explore Nigeria Pulse

2. Official data from named institutions

  • Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC): Registered voters, permanent voter card collection and turnout by state.
  • National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Governance and public service statistics.
  • Budget Office of the Federation: Budget and budget implementation publications.

Every official figure is shown with its institution and release year.

3. Field data from the phone sampling frame

Fieldwork runs on the NigeriaPolls nationwide random-digit-dial phone sampling frame of more than 11,000 Nigerian mobile numbers across all 36 states and the FCT. Each institution is asked about separately so trust can be reported institution by institution.

How the index is scaled and published

  1. 1

    Rescale. Every input is converted to a 0 to 100 score against fixed floor and ceiling values that are published before the first release and not changed afterwards.

  2. 2

    Combine. Components are combined with equal weights unless a release states otherwise. The weights and bounds are listed on the methodology page.

  3. 3

    Publish. Each release states the field dates, question wording, response basis and sample size, and shows the field, official and conversation views side by side.

  4. 4

    Revise. Any change to wording, bounds or weights is logged with a version note, so a series is never quietly rewritten.

How to cite

Cite each release with the index name, the release month and year, and the page address. Quote the sample size and field dates exactly as printed on the release.

NigeriaPolls, Governance Trust Index, release month and year. https://nigeriapolls.com/indices/governance-trust-index

Frequently asked questions

What does the Governance Trust Index measure?

It measures the level of public trust in six core institutions, on a 0 to 100 scale where 50 is neutral.

Is it a measure of political party support?

No. It covers institutions, not parties or candidates, and carries no vote-intention question.

How do I cite the index?

Cite each release as: NigeriaPolls, Governance Trust Index, release month and year, https://nigeriapolls.com/indices/governance-trust-index.